After the above study, there may be people who cannot accept the law of large numbers, 50-50, and will not accept the idea that bet placement strategies cannot increase the winning rate. Next, we will do an experiment that will convince you.
Playing baccarat, some people will say that his winning rate is high because he has a winning strategy; some people will say that his winning rate is low because he loses nothing and is heavily in debt. So have you ever counted your own historical data?
This is a very important data that few players will study. Historical data can not only reflect your winning percentage but also reflect why you lose or why you win.
Now, you can open the platform where you often play baccarat and find the page of historical data. Count your winning percentage from now on.
Needless to say, I know that your winning percentage is 50%. You may be surprised “Why do I lose so much money with a 50% winning rate?” “It’s amazing, my winning rate is only 50%!”. Maybe you have changed countless bet placement strategies, maybe you once felt that your bet placement strategy has a high winning rate, maybe you have lost a lot, but your winning rate is the same. Will lose or win only because your bet is working.
In fact, the law of large numbers is indeed everywhere, not only in the cards, but also in your winning percentage. It will not be biased towards the side with the higher winning percentage because of what strategy you use, nor will it be biased towards the side with the lower winning percentage because of your guessing.
People are obsessed with “roads” because of the law of decimals. The law of decimals means that people tend to apply the law of large numbers under the premise of large samples to small samples, but that does not hold true. People mistakenly believe that the empirical mean values of small samples and large samples have the same probability distribution, leading to excessive inferences about independent observations of short sequences. This is a common psychological misunderstanding and a summary of the gambler’s fallacy.
Therefore, if you want to win Baccarat for a long time, it is impossible to win by winning rate, because you cannot break the law of large numbers. In addition to the betting placement strategy, baccarat is a betting sizing strategy. It is conceivable that only a reasonable bet distribution can win Baccarat.